LOCAL ELECTIONS 2026: The 2026 local elections will be an early warning for 2029

The 2026 local elections are set to serve as an important early indicator for the 2029 national elections. While these polls will be significant in every council and metro where power can shift, they will also offer crucial insights into how issues like immigration, crime, violence, and the economy may become more pressing. These elections will also reveal how individual leaders can campaign effectively during the national elections.

In previous elections, the ANC has often expressed surprise at the speed at which their votes are declining. This lack of attention to local election results has hindered their ability to accurately predict future national and provincial elections. For example, in 2016, the ANC lost power in cities like Johannesburg and Nelson Mandela Bay for the first time, predicting a decline in national votes to 57.5% and 50.4% in Gauteng respectively.

In 2021, the ANC's national vote share fell further to 45.59%, indicating a significant drop to 40.18% in 2024.

The upcoming 2026 election is likely to show that the ANC's share of votes has fallen even further. If the ANC were to fall below 30%, it would suggest a potential level or even lower in 2029. Similarly, if the DA were to increase its national vote share to around 30%, it could have significant implications for the relationship between the two parties.

This election could potentially mark the beginning of a major reconfiguration of the power relationship between the ANC and the DA, with them becoming more equal partners in national government.

Beyond predicting the future, these elections will also shed light on whether future coalitions in national government will be sustainable. If the results show a variety of parties each with about 20% support, but unable to work together, it may indicate that durable national elections in 2029 are unlikely. However, if voters support parties willing to cooperate above the 50% mark, this could suggest a more stable political landscape.

Additionally, this election could reveal which issues are becoming more politically prominent. If parties campaigning explicitly or implicitly on immigration gain strong support, it may indicate that the issue will become more urgent in 2029. Similarly, if parties address the police reforms due to the current chaos and inefficiency, it could force the ANC to defend its abolition of the death penalty, creating a challenging situation with some voters.

Finally, these elections will test the leadership of party figures, particularly in predicting their performance in 2019. Geordin Hill-Lewis, the first-time DA leader, will face challenges in campaigning across Gauteng. His ability to articulate his political identity and resonate with black voters will be crucial in determining whether he can lead the DA nationally.

On the other hand, the ANC faces leadership issues with its reliance on President Cyril Ramaphosa and the uncertainty surrounding mayoral candidates. The leadership race within the ANC suggests a party in turmoil, with possible leadership candidates now trying to campaign across the country.