Latvia's pro-European ruling party wins election as populists gain ground

Latvia's center-right United List party secured a historic victory in the Baltic state's parliamentary election, according to preliminary results. The party, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, emerged as the frontrunner with 35.4 percent of the vote, securing 42 seats out of the 100-seat parliament. This marks a record for post-independence Latvia, highlighting a continued pro-European and pro-Ukrainian trajectory for the nation.

Kulbergs, who assumed office in May, expressed surprise at the strong showing, attributing it to a desire for change among the electorate. He emphasized the potential for economic growth and a better future for Latvia's children. However, his coalition appears set to undergo changes, as one member is expected to lose seats, while others underperformed.

Meanwhile, populist parties also made significant gains, capitalizing on support from Latvia's Russian-speaking minority. This demographic, comprising a third of the population, has historically rallied around the Harmony party, which was once the country's largest but has since seen a dramatic decline in support following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Security concerns, especially in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, remain a central issue in Latvian politics. Kulbergs underscored the nation's strategic importance as the external border of Europe and NATO, stressing the need for a robust economy and a strong defense. The debate over security is intertwined with the economic challenges Latvia faces, including rising living costs, low wages, a strained healthcare system, and an aging population.

While most parties in parliament support increased military spending and continued aid to Ukraine, the Sovereign Power party, running on a platform of cost-of-living concerns, is expected to finish third. However, this party has faced criticism for its pro-Russian stance and faces opposition from most major parties. Latvia First, a conservative party led by a property tycoon akin to US President Donald Trump, is projected to secure second place.

Both populist parties are believed to have benefited from shifts in voting behavior among the Russian-speaking minority, who previously aligned with the Harmony party, now defunct due to its post-invasion decline.