[단독] 전기차 전환 빨라지면 경제 부담?…“GDP·소비·수출 모두 증가”

A recent study by the Korean Climate Change Research Association suggests that tightening regulations on car emissions and accelerating the shift to electric vehicles could lead to positive economic impacts, including an increase in GDP, household consumption, and exports. The research, conducted by a team led by Professor Kim Yung-guen, analyzed the economic effects of achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets through the growth of the electric vehicle industry.

The study found that reinforcing vehicle emissions standards, along with measures like eliminating gasoline taxes and raising auto taxes, could lead to a 22% reduction in carbon emissions by 2035 compared to applying carbon pricing alone. Such a shift would result in a 0.4% increase in cumulative real GDP over ten years, a 0.31% rise in cumulative real income, a 0.27% increase in household consumption, a 0.32% rise in exports, and a 0.20% increase in employment.

The primary driver of these economic improvements is expected to be the "learning effect" from increased production of electric vehicles and batteries. As more EVs and batteries are produced, accumulated technology and expertise could reduce production costs and enhance the competitiveness of domestic electric vehicle and battery industries, leading to increased exports.

Additionally, the lower operating costs of electric vehicles could positively affect the economy by lowering transportation service prices, increasing households' real purchasing power, and resulting in a 4.97% decrease in vehicle operating costs in 2035 compared to a carbon pricing scenario.