El Niño may push up food prices, but India better prepared than in 2009: Scientists

India has learned from its past experiences with El Niño events, and recent advancements in agricultural policies have positioned the nation better to handle potential food price increases compared to the 2009 event, according to scientists. During a session organized by IIOE-2 Early Career Scientists Network, experts discussed the impact of El Niño on extreme events and society.

Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist from IITM Pune, recalled India's encounter with a strong El Niño in 2009, when monsoon deficits reached 22 percent, leading to a 20 percent rise in food inflation. Since then, approximately 56 percent of agricultural land in India has been irrigated, providing a buffer against inflation prices for staple crops like rice and wheat. However, oilseeds and pulses are still affected by rainfall deficits.

Dr. Smita Bal, a scientist at the Centre for Marine Living Resources and Ecology, warned that the rainfall deficit could negatively affect fish availability. Dr. Himadri Saini, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Melbourne in Australia, emphasized that no two El Niño events are identical. They noted that El Niño can influence the winter monsoon as well, as there is typically an above-normal Western disturbance bringing winter rainfall to North India.

Dr. Vineet Singh, who moderated the event, highlighted the recent heavy rainfall in the Western Himalayas, particularly in Uttarakhand and Nepal. Satellite images from 10 days ago showed little snow in the region, but now, it is covered in snow due to a recent depression-induced moisture dump and a Western disturbance. This could potentially lead to more rainfall or snowfall in North India areas, providing additional relief from the El Niño impacts.