Cotton production moderates amid heatwave concerns
LAHORE: A sharp mid-season deceleration in national cotton arrivals has raised serious concerns across the country’s textile and ginning sectors. Early hopes for a bumper harvest have faded after a heatwave caused the cotton bolls to open prematurely. Data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) showed total arrivals reaching 3.208 million bales as of Sept 30, reflecting a slim…
In Lahore, a sharp slowdown in cotton production mid-harvest has raised alarm bells across Pakistan's textile and ginning industries. Early optimism for a record-breaking harvest has evaporated after a heatwave caused the cotton bolls to unfurl too soon. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), cotton arrivals totaled 3.208 million bales by September 30, marking a slight 5.39% increase compared to the same period last year.
This represents a sharp contrast from just one month prior, when favorable weather had boosted output by 27% year-on-year, igniting hopes for a 10-15% overall harvest uptick. Ihsanul Haq, Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, explained that scorching temperatures in recent weeks led cotton bolls to open prematurely. Initial projections suggested higher yields per acre, but production subsequently nosedived.
In the September 16-30 fortnight alone, arrivals fell short of expectations, totaling 820,000 bales versus projected estimates of 1.1m bales. Regionally, Punjab contributed 1.214 million bales (a 6.91% rise), while Sindh delivered 1.993 million bales (up 4.48%). Cotton researcher Sajid Mahmood of the Central Cotton Research Institute cautioned that the production decline, coupled with looming threats of pink bollworm infestation and rising lint contamination complaints, could drive domestic raw cotton prices upward and increase import reliance.
However, the sector anticipates a reduction in illicit trading — which previously accounted for 1.5 to 2 million bales annually — thanks to new digital invoicing rules enforced by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). The domestic slowdown mirrors global trends, with the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) lowering its global production outlook for the 2026-27 crop year to 25.94 million tonnes, down 3.8% from 26.98 million tonnes in 2025-26.
A significant disparity persists between provincial reporting agencies, notes Haq. While the PCGA estimates Punjab's output at 1.215 million bales, the Punjab Crop Reporting Service cites 2.492 million bales — a discrepancy of nearly 100%.
Written by urgent.news from Dawn Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
