Are Mormons Losing Their Distinctiveness?

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or Mormons, have long been known for their unique demographic patterns. They typically have higher birth rates, marriage rates, and family sizes compared to other religious groups. Additionally, those born into the Church tend to stay members for life, a phenomenon known as high retention. However, in recent years, several long-standing patterns of the LDS Church have started to change.

As of 2024, only about half of young people born into the Church remain members, a significant decrease from more than 80% in the 1980s. The Church's marriage rate has also fallen by 10% since 2011. Furthermore, the number of annual recorded births per 1,000 LDS members has dropped from 25 to just five over the past 40 years, according to data from Church records analyzed by independent data scientist Alex Bass.

These demographic shifts have raised concerns within the Church. Doug Andersen, a spokesperson for the Church, acknowledged that while church records show a worldwide increase in membership and participation, the demographic problems are still significant. In response, Dallin Oaks, the Church's new leader, addressed the issue in his first conference address as prophet. He acknowledged that while the Church's marriage and birth rates were still better than the U.S. average, they had declined significantly.

The Church's struggles are not unique, as overall trends in the United States show declining birth rates and religious disaffiliation across various faiths. However, as Matthew Bowman, chair of Mormon Studies at Claremont Graduate University, observes, the Church's challenges indicate that the process of assimilation to mainstream American culture is becoming more noticeable.

Compared to other Protestant denominations, the LDS Church appears to be doing relatively well in retaining its young people. However, even within Protestantism, the retention rate is 70%, which greatly surpasses the LDS Church's rate.

The decline in retention may have more significant implications for the LDS Church than for other denominations. Fewer young people could lead to a shortage of missionaries, as well as a reduced workforce for operating churches, which are typically volunteer-led at both local and regional levels. Historically, the Church's strong structure for children, including Sunday school, youth programs, regional dances, and camp experiences, helped channel young people into missionary work and lifelong membership. However, this model seems to be failing in the current demographic environment.

One of the most pressing challenges for the Church is its difficulty in retaining young women. As of 2025, fewer than 40% of 18-year-old women remain members of the faith. Young women may leave due to various reasons, including their liberal views on issues like same-sex marriage. However, when interviewed for her upcoming book on people who leave the faith, historian Jana Riess found that many young women also felt undervalued by the Church.

Within LDS theology, only men hold the priesthood, which grants them the authority to perform certain religious duties, such as blessing children and the sick, passing the sacrament, and holding leadership positions. This arrangement means that women have no final say in Church matters and are placed in a challenging position where they are expected to nurture the children while having little to no influence over the spiritual direction of the Church.