AI 경제에서 노동·자본 몫

A recent report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. has analyzed how artificial intelligence (AI) is affecting labor markets and the distribution of labor income in the United States. The findings reveal that while labor productivity is increasing, the share of labor income in overall economic output has dropped to its lowest level since statistics began in 1929.

Simultaneously, the return on capital and corporate profits have reached their highest levels in 50-70 years. This disparity in income distribution is attributed to AI-driven automation replacing repetitive tasks and reducing labor demand, which in turn weakens workers' bargaining power and suppresses wage growth. IMF estimates show that employment and wages in AI-exposed, low-complexity jobs have decreased by 3.6%, while those in AI-exposed, high-complexity jobs have either remained stable or shown no significant improvement.

Similarly, a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research predicts that in the long term, the share of labor income in the economy will converge to zero due to the increasing dominance of capital returns. This trend aligns with the Keynesian theory of rising inequality in capitalism and the "law of diminishing returns to capital" introduced by John Maynard Keynes, suggesting that as capital accumulates at a faster rate than the economy's overall growth, inequality will continue to widen.

The IMF and NBER reports underscore the convergence of AI-driven economic changes and historical economic theories predicting growing income inequality.