국채-AI기업 회사채 ‘고래싸움’ 여파…“역사적으로 치솟는” 주요국 장기 금리

The recent surge in long-term interest rates across major economies—such as the United States, Europe, and Japan—has escalated into a "giant whale of a fight" between national bonds and corporate bonds. The major factor behind this competition, according to experts, is the astronomical demand for artificial intelligence (AI) equipment by global businesses.

Major economies like the U.S., Europe, and Japan have witnessed record-high 10-year bond rates, with the U.S. hitting an all-time high of 5.34% in a single day, 24 years after its previous peak of 5.4%. Likewise, the U.K. and France have seen their rates surpass 5.5% and 4.994%, respectively, in more than two decades. Japan, on the other hand, has maintained its 10-year bond rate around 3.1% for the past month, a 30-year high since 1996.

The Japanese government's plan to increase the benchmark interest rate could further propel long-term bond rates, surpassing those of the U.S. and Europe. Amid ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and growing concerns about national debt in these major economies, the surge in interest rates can be attributed to factors like intensified competition among global tech giants.

Companies like Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have collectively raised $1.32 trillion in bonds between July and December 2022, a 40% increase from the previous year. These tech behemoths are investing heavily in data centers and infrastructure to keep pace with the AI boom, opting for corporate bonds due to their higher yields compared to national bonds.

However, competing with highly trusted global corporations for bond issuance raises concerns about investor preferences, leading to higher demand for government bonds and further driving up their interest rates.