What’s luck got to do with it?

In our daily lives, we often seek certainty in the outcomes of our decisions, expecting a direct correlation between the choice we make and the result. However, this is rarely the case.

Business leaders, for example, seek the same certainty from the decisions they make. They expect that carefully crafting plans and making good decisions will lead to the expected results. But this is not always the reality.

The future is unpredictable, and numerous external variables can influence the outcome of a decision. Sometimes, despite making the best decisions and plans, the desired result is not achieved. Conversely, a poor decision or plan can sometimes lead to better outcomes.

This situation highlights that a good decision and a good outcome are not always the same thing. It's crucial to understand that luck plays a role when preparation meets opportunity, but it doesn't explain how we can improve the quality of our decisions when many factors remain outside our control.

To enhance decision-making quality, leaders must focus on three key elements. First, clearly state the desired outcome and the reasons behind it. Define what success means and how it benefits the organization, its customers, or its employees. Second, distinguish facts from assumptions and determine if there's enough reliable information to act. Finally, know what cannot be changed. Any improvement requires changing something, but changing one part of a business can have unintended consequences elsewhere.

Improving decision quality starts with defining the problem accurately before taking action. A successful decision should create enough value to justify the resources, risk, and disruption required to implement it. While we cannot eliminate luck from the outcome, we can reduce our dependence on it by learning from each decision and applying that learning to the next.