US carmakers are getting squeezed — and Chinese brands are waiting outside

Major US automakers are experiencing a decline in their domestic market share due to competition from Asian manufacturers, particularly China. This trend is expected to worsen if Chinese firms are allowed to enter the US market, according to a report by Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist at Cox Automotive. Asian brands are projected to account for over half of US new vehicle sales in the third quarter, a record-high market share level.

However, Detroit's Big Three - General Motors, Ford, and FCA/Stellantis - are projected to see their market share drop to just over 36 percent, their lowest on record. GM, the overall leader in US sales, has slipped from 17.4 percent in 2025 to 16.7 percent in the first nine months of this year, while Toyota has risen from 15.2 percent to 15.6 percent in the same period.

Market share and sales are down for Ford and up for Hyundai-Kia, with Ford likely to drop to number four, while Hyundai-Kia remains third. The situation could worsen if President Donald Trump's idea of allowing Chinese cars in the US market becomes reality. Chinese manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and SAIC could sell up to 1.7 million cars in the US by 2038, about 11 percent of the market, due to their significant advantages in hybrid vehicles and the volatile gas prices.

Despite the possibility of importing Chinese vehicles, punitive customs duties and tariffs make it prohibitively expensive. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, representing all carmakers in the US, has called for a permanent ban on Chinese cars, citing security concerns and the potential for Chinese carmakers to collect, process, and transmit sensitive vehicle and consumer data to the Chinese Communist Party.