Umfragewerte der Parteien: Insa-Umfrage: AfD bei 30 Prozent - Union fällt auf 18

A recent Insa-Umfrage has revealed that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reached 30% in nationwide support, marking a first for the party. In contrast, the Union has fallen to its lowest point at 18%, according to the same survey. The AfD has increased by one percentage point compared to the previous week, while the CDU and CSU have lost one point and now stand at 18%. The AfD is now 12 points ahead of the Union in the Insa-Institute's "Bild" survey.

This marks the highest and lowest values for both parties in Insa's data, with other institutes having measured similar values during Sunday polls. The Union's support in YouGov stood at 18% in mid-September, while the AfD was at 30% in GMS at the same time. Recent measurements by other institutes had the AfD slightly lower by up to four points and the Union up to five points higher.

Historically, the Union's lowest point was in October 2021, when Insa measured 18.5% for it. In the current survey, the SPD and Greens are tied at 14% each, while the Left party is at 10%. The FDP and BSW are both below the 5% threshold, with 4% each.

Mathematically, a realistic majority would require less than 50% of the votes, even in a coalition between the parties. Under the current political conditions, coalition governments are out of the question, leaving only a possible three-party coalition of Union, SPD, and Greens. Measured dissatisfaction is also high, with 79% expressing dissatisfaction with both the Chancellor's performance and the federal government as a whole.

Opinion polls are inherently uncertain due to waning party affiliations and potential measurement deviations, which Insa states can range from plus/minus 2.9 percentage points.