The winter war: Ukraine is prepping for another season of Russian attacks before the cold sets in

In September, daily air raid alerts have echoed throughout Kyiv, with Shahed drones circling the city and disrupting the daily routines of municipal services, shops, businesses, and public institutions. A protocol came into effect on September 10, designating a "yellow" alert level for Shaheds and a "red" level for missiles. During a yellow alert, most businesses and institutions continued operating.

However, schools were required to suspend classes. In areas lacking underground classrooms, students transitioned to online learning. Across Ukraine, local authorities received discretion over their response to alerts. In August and September, central government officials met with businesses, advising them to consider establishing air defenses, collaborate with existing volunteer territorial defense formations (DFTG), and relocate warehouses underground.

Russian forces had been targeting Epicentr, a home improvement retailer, and Nova Poshta, a delivery company, for years. More recently, supermarket chains experienced systematic attacks on their warehouses. As autumn arrives, Ukraine grapples with the question of how to endure a winter of relentless strikes. The country's infrastructure for heating and essential civilian services is anticipated to be targeted by Russia.

Ukraine requires military shields and air defense interceptors to defend against ballistic and cruise missiles. However, frequent drone attacks have introduced a new challenge. A volunteer with a Kyiv Region DFTG shared that his unit formed interceptor-drone teams to prepare for the winter campaign, alongside their regular gun and mobile fire teams.

Training commenced in mid-spring, and by the end of summer, most volunteers had passed examinations and received certificates, along with combat interceptor drones. Nevertheless, a predicament arose: older interceptor drones were effective against conventional Shaheds but struggled against jet-powered variants, which were expected to be deployed by Russia during the fall and winter.

Volunteer formations, part of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces (TDF), faced lagging supply systems compared to other military units. New technologies only reached the TDF and volunteer groups after being tested by regular units. Videos emerged in early September showing jet-powered Shaheds being intercepted by high-speed fixed-wing interceptor drones and Sting S quadcopters.

While Ukraine's new interceptor drones are more maneuverable and can engage targets at greater distances and altitudes than conventional weapons, they do not guarantee complete protection. The same applies to Russia, which is technologically behind Ukraine. If power stations, thermal power plants, and combined heat-and-power plants are set ablaze this winter, there is a higher likelihood that they will also ignite in Russia.

Kyiv volunteer territorial defense formation commander Asgard reported that his unit employs a range of weapons, from 5.45 mm to 23 mm, along with interceptor-drone crews. The most significant target was a cruise missile they shot down in 2024 using a 7.62 mm Maxim machine gun manufactured in 1942. Asgard's unit also engages jet-powered Shaheds, but their success rate against these targets is relatively low, ranging from 40% to 60%.

Volunteer formations hope that rate will improve as interceptor-drone teams receive more high-speed drones. On the front lines, winter could offer Ukraine advantages. Fiber-optic drones will have an easier time navigating through falling leaves, and the military will rely more on skill, quality, and careful planning than quantity.

While there is discussion about AI-equipped drones, artificial intelligence cannot replace human decision-making in target selection. FPV drone pilot Silver emphasized that artificial intelligence will not replace human judgment entirely. Even if Russia conducts another mobilization, conditions will become more challenging for Russian soldiers.