Quant Mutual Fund says investors should stay agile in portfolio allocation amid market shifts
The fund house noted that the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East had entered its eighth month and resulted in severe disruptions to global commodity supplies, with Brent crude rising above $100 a barrel.
Quant Mutual Fund advises investors to maintain flexibility in their portfolio and asset allocation strategies in response to evolving global market conditions, according to the fund's latest monthly release. The firm noted that recent geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and rising energy prices have significantly impacted commodity markets, leading to a surge in Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel.
These developments have added to the challenge of maintaining disinflation, with higher diesel and jet fuel prices putting pressure on household savings and trade balances in energy-importing nations.
The fund also highlighted the impact of the US Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point interest rate hike, which has driven sovereign bond yields to multi-decade highs and increased mortgage rates to 7%. Such higher borrowing costs could potentially suppress consumer spending, cool the housing market, and restrain business investment, potentially leading to a stagflation-like environment.
Consequently, global investors have been readjusting their portfolios, with equity markets experiencing a correction, as seen in the Nifty 50 falling 6% and Hang Seng and Shanghai indices declining around 3.5%. The Indian rupee also weakened to around 96 against the US dollar.
Quant Mutual Fund pointed out the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) in the global economy, with its boom contributing to manufacturing activity in several countries through strong demand for semiconductors and AI hardware. However, the fund noted that India's relatively lower exposure to AI and reliance on high-ticket imports like oil and gold had affected market sentiment.
The fund's Behavioral Analytics has identified opportunities in what it calls the "anti-AI trade," with India positioned to benefit from this shift, as it is less affected by the crowded AI trade.
Given the current market dynamics, the fund emphasized the importance of staying agile in portfolio and asset allocation. Quant Mutual Fund's dynamic and active management approach, which allows for swift action across a broad range of asset classes, is critical in this environment. The fund is focusing on under-owned, under-researched, under-valued, and neglected stocks, maintaining a relatively underweight stance on manufacturing due to uncertainty around input costs and supply chains, while increasing exposure to IT services as this sector enters "neglected territory."
The fund remains constructive on themes such as Energy, large Infrastructure, select NBFCs, AMCs, Auto Ancillaries, Hotels, Pharmaceuticals, Telecom, and data center investments.
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