Pipeline Diplomacy: How Security Alliances Are Reshaping Trade
The conflict around the Strait of Hormuz is changing the way energy routes are planned. Security guarantees are increasingly becoming as important as prices and tariffs in determining which corridors receive investment and access to markets. Before the crisis, around 20% of global oil and gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf states are now accelerating alternative pipeline…
Pipeline diplomacy is reshaping global trade as security alliances play an increasingly important role in determining which energy corridors receive investment and access to markets. The conflict around the Strait of Hormuz has led Gulf states to accelerate alternative pipeline projects, with capacity potentially exceeding 14 million barrels per day by the end of 2028.
One such project is the revival of the Kirkuk–Baniyas oil pipeline linking Iraq and Syria, part of a broader agreement involving the United States. This new form of regional integration focuses on protected transport corridors rather than traditional free-trade agreements, with security guarantees providing commercial opportunities, transit state fees, and predictable market access for exporters.
Turkey is emerging as a key beneficiary, with the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline capable of carrying 1.6 million barrels of oil per day and Ankara seeking a greater role in Iraqi energy projects. The shift in trade routes also impacts Ukraine, as Turkey becomes a regional gas trading hub, giving Ankara greater influence over energy flows between the Middle East, Europe, and the Black Sea.
Security arrangements now influence the cost of trade, with additional war-risk premiums for Black Sea shipping exceeding 1% of a vessel's value, compared to 7.5–10% for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This highlights how security guarantees can directly affect the cost of moving goods, making route diversification crucial for Ukraine beyond just infrastructure or tariff issues.
Pipeline diplomacy brings back the principle that whoever can guarantee a route's security gains greater influence over the economic rules surrounding it.
Brief written by urgent.news from UATV English's own syndicated text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
