Omotola: Election May Be Won by Vote Concentration, Not Number of States

Funmi Ogundare, publisher of Politico.ng, warned at a 2027 presidential election projection press conference in Lagos that a candidate may secure more states but lose the overall election due to vote concentration and turnout in key areas. He emphasized that political parties and candidates must mobilize voters in their strongholds more than simply winning a large number of states.

Lagos State, with a large number of registered voters, serves as an example of the difficulty in achieving 50% turnout, unlike areas where large numbers of voters traditionally participate. Omotola's Political Intelligence Group (PIG) possesses research figures but refrained from publicizing them, urging politicians to scrutinize their own electoral data.

The expert called for using opinion polls to understand voter preferences but cautioned that polls shouldn't be considered foolproof predictors. Polls should examine various demographic groups, such as young people focused on education and financial independence, older voters concerned about pensions, and working-class adults interested in employment opportunities.

Ethnicity, religion, economic conditions, and insecurity still play significant roles in Nigerian politics, with hunger and poverty being important factors, but voters might also be influenced by community leaders and influential figures. Omotola criticized politicians for making unrealistic campaign promises without considering their feasibility and the impact on government finances, particularly on issues like fuel subsidy and minimum wage.

He emphasized that politicians needed to demonstrate knowledge of public finance and sustainable solutions for Nigeria's economic challenges.