How big can Starlink’s residential broadband business become?

Analysts predict SpaceX's Starlink could potentially accommodate up to 150 million residential broadband subscribers, generating revenue of up to $65 billion annually. As of the second quarter of 2026, the service boasted approximately 12 million subscribers, marking a significant surge from its sparse presence in 2020. Spanning over 120 countries and territories, Starlink aims to expand its reach to an additional 50 markets in the near future.

Bernstein estimates that more than 800 million residential broadband subscriptions exist across regions currently served by Starlink or set to be integrated in the future.

The most immediate opportunity lies in capturing the existing satellite and other fixed broadband markets, potentially adding 13 million subscribers and generating $4 billion to $7 billion in annual revenue. A larger prospect emerges from households lacking fixed broadband infrastructure. By connecting roughly half of the global unconnected households, Starlink could attain a subscriber base of 50 million to 75 million, yielding $12 billion to $21 billion in annual revenue.

The team of analysts sees a more plausible scenario where Starlink captures 10% to 20% of non-fibre broadband users, encompassing DSL, fixed wireless, and selected cable services. This strategy could result in 93 million to 153 million residential subscribers, translating to $27 billion to $65 billion in annual subscription revenue.

For the analysts, capturing a substantial portion of the fibre market is less likely due to its superior performance. Nevertheless, including small businesses and other consumer broadband uses could push the base case toward 168 million subscribers and $64 billion in annual revenue by 2031. Subscriber growth is projected to occur alongside decreasing average revenue per user as Starlink ventures into lower-income markets and adopts more competitive local pricing.