Expert explains | As Israel heads to polls this month, will unpopular Netanyahu make a comeback?

Israel will be holding its elections to the Knesset on October 27, marking the first elections since the Hamas attack in October 2023. Since then, the country has faced numerous conflicts, including a massive humanitarian crisis in Gaza, open fronts against Iran and Lebanon. The race appears tight, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conservative Likud party trailing in opinion polls.

Hermann explains that security and foreign relations are the top issues for voters, with economic concerns also playing a significant role. While Netanyahu has managed to maintain his right-wing coalition, his government's approach to violence in the West Bank has been criticized. If a new government comes to power, it is expected to be tougher on settlers in the region.

Despite his record, Netanyahu's coalition is struggling to reach the 61-seat majority needed for a majority government. However, he remains a formidable political force, capable of holding his block together. Opposition leaders, including Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, have shown strong polling numbers, but their unity is lacking.

The debate over drafting ultra-orthodox Jewish men (Haredim) and passing laws with religious exemptions has strained the alliance between Likud and Haredi parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).

The impact of this issue on coalition stability is significant, as Haredim groups are dissatisfied with Netanyahu's failure to accommodate their demands. While leaders like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have moved into major ministerial roles, it remains uncertain whether their ideology will permanently reshape the mainstream Israeli right.