Exit polls show pro-Ukraine United List party leading Latvian parliamentary elections as counting begins

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist United List party is predicted to secure the most seats in the Latvian parliament, according to exit polling conducted by public broadcaster LSM on October 3. The party garnered 35% support, though final results are yet to be announced, expected in the early hours of October 4. The parliamentary elections, the second since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, saw Latvians casting their votes on October 3, with affordability and security concerns taking center stage in the Baltic nation bordering Russia.

This election served as a trial for Kulbergs, who has been leading the nation since May. The previous prime minister, Evika Silina, resigned amidst a political crisis stemming from a Ukrainian drone incursion into Latvian airspace. Kulbergs, ever since taking office, has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, with Latvia significantly ramping up its defense spending since 2022, reaching 5% of its GDP.

Western officials have cautioned about a growing hybrid threat from Russia, a matter of grave concern for Latvia, an EU and NATO member sharing borders with Russia and Belarus. Despite no indication of an imminent Russian attack, Latvia has been on guard, having shot down several stray drones from the airspace. The majority of Latvia's electoral parties are pro-Ukraine, even though one-third of the population speaks Russian as their first language.

If the exit polls hold true and the United List emerges with 35% support, forming a coalition government will still be necessary for the party to achieve a majority. The exit polls suggest that the populist Latvia First party would be in second place with 11.3% support, followed closely by the social democrat Progressive party with 11.1%.

The Russia-aligned Sovereign Power/Young Latvians alliance is projected to garner 10.8% of the vote, making it the fourth-largest party in the legislature. The Sovereign Power opposes military aid to Ukraine, the only political party in Latvia with such a stance. The State Security Service of Latvia (VDD) has implemented heightened security measures to counter potential Russian election interference, though no substantial systematic interference had been identified, according to LSM on September 28.