Enttäuschung in Bern über die unnachgiebige Haltung der Schweizerischen Nationalbank

In Bern, Swiss National Bank (SNB) president Martin Schlegel emphasized that the bank currently has insufficient equity and needs to build more. This is due to the large balance sheet, which can generate both high profits and losses. The SNB's equity ratio currently stands at 19%, and the bank does not consider anything below 20% to be sufficient, according to Schlegel.

However, the SNB is now accepting a reduction in the minimum allocation to reserves from 10% to 8%. The SNB and the Swiss Federal Administration (EFV) wanted to go beyond their respective media releases to clarify their position, but neither provided further statements. In the circles of the National Bank, it is understood that the agreement is seen as a continuation of the existing dividend payout.

Currently, reserves for currency reserves amount to around 140 billion francs. If 10% more are added each year, their value will increase even more due to the interest compounding effect. In this regard, a decrease is tolerable for the SNB. Mathematically, with the 8% ratio, the reserves for the next five years would exceed the reserves from the previous five years.

In Bern, it is said that there is disappointment over the SNB's hard stance. The changes compared to the old agreement are minimal, and the bank wants to maintain its very cautious reserve policy, accepting nothing but its own opinion in the negotiations. The negotiations for the period 2026 to 2030 began early last autumn, so there was no time pressure.

However, the negotiation duration of about a year shows that the talks were quite tough, especially due to the empty treasury in Bern. This is confirmed by voices from negotiation circles. The core modalities for the dividend payout in the coming five years will remain largely unchanged. The bank will annually pay out up to 6 billion francs to the federation and cantons, provided the financial situation allows.

This sum consists of a basic amount of 2 billion francs, which will be paid out if the SNB's balance sheet profit is at least 2 billion francs. Additionally, there are four possible payouts of 1 billion francs each, occurring when the SNB's balance sheet profit reaches the thresholds of 10, 20, 30, and 40 billion francs. The respective payout is divided equally between the federation (one-third) and the cantons (two-thirds) according to the National Bank Act.

This part of the new agreement is exactly the same as the previous mode of operation. The equity consists of several components, including equity capital of 25 million francs and retained profits. The main components of equity are the currency reserve reserves and the so-called dividend reserve, where unallocated profits flow. The reserves are intended to maintain currency reserves at a level necessary for monetary policy in the SNB's view.

They also act as a buffer against loss risks, which have increased significantly over the past fifteen years due to the SNB's forced expansion of its balance sheet during various crises. The reserves thus serve to increase the SNB's equity, which the bank has been striving for for years. Since the major financial crisis, the corresponding percentage has increased significantly.

In 2009, the SNB increased the allocation to reserves to double the nominal economic growth due to rising balance sheet risks. In 2016, it introduced a minimum annual allocation of 8% of the existing reserves for the upcoming five-year period, which it raised to 10% for the next five years in 2020. Now, the value is again decreasing to 8%.

The SNB is therefore accepting a slowdown in the build-up of equity, increasing the chances for the federation and cantons to receive a higher dividend, depending on the SNB's yearly performance. Improving the statutory continuity of dividend payouts, which the federation and many cantons have demanded, is not evident. The amount allocated to currency reserve reserves is important because the remaining portion of the year's profit, after dividends, will contribute to the balance sheet profit.

The bank can only pay a maximum of 6% of the equity capital as a dividend to its shareholders. Only the portion of the balance sheet profit remaining after dividends can be distributed as a dividend.