Democrats To Flip 3 Senate Seats in Major Swing, New Poll Shows

In a new New York Times/Siena poll, Democrats lead Republican opponents in three Senate contests in Alaska, Texas, and Ohio, according to the results released on October 3. If these trends hold on Election Day, Democrats would gain three GOP-held seats, putting them within reach of controlling the Senate.

Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska by seven points, with 50 percent to Sullivan's 43 percent. This lead exceeds the survey's margin of sampling error, making it a likely Democratic gain. Peltola, who grew up fishing with her father and now represents Alaska's Indigenous communities, highlights fisheries as a crucial campaign issue.

In Texas, James Talarico is ahead of Republican Senator Ted Paxton by six points, with 51 percent to Paxton's 45 percent. Among 615 likely voters surveyed in English and Spanish, this lead is within the survey's margin of sampling error. Talarico, a former teacher and seminarian, describes his teaching experience in a low-income San Antonio neighborhood as pivotal to his political career.

In Ohio, Sherrod Brown trails Republican Governor John Husted by three points, with 49 percent to Husted's 46 percent. Surveys of 616 likely voters conducted between September 22 and October 1 show this margin within the survey's margin of sampling error, making the race statistically competitive. Brown, a former senator seeking re-election, emphasizes the economic challenges Ohio families face, while Husted has pushed for federal aid after recent natural disasters and promoted a bill to address the costs of power plants and grid upgrades.