Costa Rica Exchange Rate: US Dollar Climbs 2.7% From Record Low After a US Rate Hike

Costa Rica's exchange rate has shifted after months of the colón being exceptionally strong. The dollar averaged 458.67 colones on Monex on Friday, October 2nd, marking a 2.7% increase from its lowest point on September 17th. The shift began the following day, following the US Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023 – a quarter-point increase on September 16th.

According to a currency analyst quoted by Diario Extra, the Fed is primarily responsible for the change, with oil prices and thin trading also playing a role. On September 17th, the Monex average dropped to 446.80 colones, the lowest since the market opened, breaking the previous record of 447.77 set on September 11th. The dollar then climbed across most trading sessions, reaching 460.45 on October 1st, the first close above 460 since early June.

On Friday, however, the average fell 1.78 colones to 458.67, the first decrease after five consecutive rises, according to La Nación. The central bank's reference rate for Saturday remains at 455.71 colones to buy and 462.08 to sell. Carlos Valerín, a currency market analyst, told Diario Extra that the Fed's rate hike was the main factor.

He also noted the Banco Central de Costa Rica's (BCCR) decision to maintain its interest rate and discuss potential further US rate increases. The BCCR kept its policy rate at 3.00% following a majority vote on September 24th, leaving the local rate below the new US range of 3.75–4.00%, which favors saving in dollars. Bank president Róger Madrigal, quoted by Diario Extra, suggested that this widening gap might lead to capital outflows, potentially driving up the exchange rate.

He stated that the bank's approach is to monitor the situation carefully rather than aggressively widen the difference. Economist Daniel Ortiz told Diario Extra that oil prices near US$100 a barrel increase the amount of dollars needed for fuel imports. Valerín explained that September and October are thin trading months, causing moves to be sharper.

Regional factors, rather than domestic ones, are driving the pressure. Diario Extra noted that both the Mexican and Colombian pesos weakened, and Peru's sol had its worst month since March. The increase is relatively modest, considering the colón's long-term climb. As of Friday, the dollar bought 458.67 colones, 7.7% lower than its 497.07 value on January 2nd and significantly below its 504.02 level a year earlier.

Ortiz believes that end-of-year bonuses and cross-border payroll activities in November and December could cause the dollar to fall again. For exporters, tourism firms, and households relying on dollars, each dollar now purchases more colones. Borrowers with dollar loans and local incomes will face slightly higher repayments in colón terms.

It remains uncertain whether this movement signals a reversal or a temporary pause. Year-end inflows may cause the exchange rate to drop, while oil prices and US rates may push it up. The BCCR has not indicated any changes before its final scheduled rate meeting on November 26th. Whether the Fed raises rates again this year remains uncertain.

Sources include the Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR), Monex trading data, the BCCR's monetary policy statement from September 24th, 2026, and various news outlets reporting on the developments.