World food prices near four-year high in September: UN

World food prices surged in September to near a four-year high, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points, up from August’s 134.0 and the highest since November 2022, as various factors impacted global commodity markets. Logistics disruptions and weather concerns led to price increases in sugar, cereal, and meat, while wheat futures hit a three-year peak due to a war-related collapse in Black Sea trade.

FAO chief economist Maximo Torero explained that the combination of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea, and climate shocks is causing a persistent rise in global commodity prices, which could soon affect consumer food prices, particularly in import-dependent countries.

The FAO's sugar price index jumped 6.1% in September, marking the third consecutive monthly increase as adverse weather threatened supply in major production zones. Cereal prices rose 5.1% month on month, primarily due to reduced yield prospects for US corn and disruptions to Black Sea grain trade. Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.9%, driven by strong demand for palm oil and concerns over El Nino-related production risks in Southeast Asia.

The overall meat index declined 1.1%, mainly due to lower poultry prices, partly linked to a drop in EU demand following new import rules.

Despite these price increases, FAO projected that global cereal production in 2026 would remain almost unchanged at 2.979 billion tonnes, 2.1% below the previous year's peak but still the second-largest harvest on record. However, the organization cut its forecast for world cereal trade by 0.7% from the previous month, citing lower wheat and maize export expectations due to constrained Black Sea shipping.