USA: Scope bestätigt US‑Bonitätsnote – Aber hohe Staatsverschuldung

The European rating agency Scope has reaffirmed the United States' creditworthiness with the "AA-" rating and a stable outlook. The world's largest economy continues to benefit from its vast economic strength and the role of the US dollar as the global reserve currency, Scope stated on Friday evening. However, a deterioration of government finances, increasing political polarization and medium-term risks to financial stability pose challenges.

The US has not held the top "AAA" rating from the three major US rating agencies for some time. Fitch downgraded the US credit quality by one notch in 2023, citing an expected deterioration in the budget situation and the repeated dispute over the debt ceiling. Moody's also stripped the US of its AAA rating in 2025 due to rising debt.

S&P maintained its "AA+" rating for the US in June, while Fitch upgraded it in August. Scope projects that US debt issuance will rise from 6.8% to 7.8% of GDP in 2025, and total debt will climb from 124 to 144% of economic output by 2031. The situation is exacerbated by skyrocketing borrowing costs that constrict the government's financial room.

Rating agencies also warn of the consequences of political division in Washington, with the recurring battle over raising the national debt limit indicating weaknesses in budget management and regular turbulence in financial markets. Despite increased political pressure, recent monetary policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve showed sustained operational independence, Scope said.

The rating is underpinned by the resilience of the US economy. Scope projects robust growth of around 2.4% for 2026 and 2027. The US labor market remains strong with a jobless rate of 4.1% at the latest. A key advantage for the US remains the untapped depth and liquidity of the domestic capital market. Although the share of the dollar in global currency reserves has long been declining, the US currency still dominates international trade and cross-border financing, providing exceptional financial flexibility that mitigates the risks of high government debt.

Scope also identified medium-term risks in the financial system and environmental and societal factors as additional challenges. Although the US banking sector remains robust, there are weaknesses that regular bank regulation relaxations could aggravate. Looking ahead to President Donald Trump's second term, Scope also noted the US's planned withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the dismantling of environmental regulations.

The increasing concentration of power in the executive branch and the withdrawal of programs promoting social equality also contribute to weakening institutional frameworks and social cohesion.