US labour market: Softer jobs ease Fed hike risk – ABN Amro

ABN Amro's Rogier Quaedvlieg analyzed September US labour market data, noting that payrolls decreased to 29k compared to the expected 90k. The revision from prior months was also down by 60k. Quaedvlieg described the report as mixed but in line with their base case, suggesting a reduction in pressure for an October Fed hike.

The September labour market report was softer than expected, but its qualitative aspects aligned with their expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, primarily due to an increase in the participation rate by 0.2 percentage points. While the headline numbers indicated a soft report, the underlying picture was more nuanced: unemployment increased as previously inactive individuals re-entered the job search.

A notable figure was the modest 0.1% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings, which reduced the year-over-year rate to 3.0%. This positive development was beneficial for the inflation outlook, although potential negative real earnings growth might impact consumer spending.

The three-month average of 51k jobs was solid given the available labour supply, but it did not suggest either a robust or tight market. This report, combined with the downside surprise in the PCE report earlier in the week, removed the pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in October.

The team remains optimistic about persistent inflationary pressures stemming from the energy shock, potentially leading to another Fed hike in December. This decision would aim to prevent the transmission of inflation to consumer prices and wages.