Ukraine's budget revenue lags plan by UAH 49.5 bln in 9M

Ukraine's budget revenue fell UAH 49.5 billion short of plan in the first nine months of 2026, with August and September accounting for nearly two-thirds of the shortfall, according to Budget Committee head Roksolana Pidlasa. Russian strikes on businesses were cited as the main reason for the revenue shortfall. Imports VAT underperformed by UAH 35.7 billion, goods produced in Ukraine by VAT fell short by UAH 32.9 billion, domestic excise by UAH 19.1 billion, and dividends and part of economic entities net profit by UAH 10.8 billion.

Corporate profit tax was overperformed by UAH 29 billion, while personal income tax and military levy were slightly overperformed by UAH 6.6 billion. The general fund received UAH 1.9 trillion in revenue from January-September 2026, excluding international grants, with import VAT being the largest source at UAH 491 billion. International aid of $22 billion was used to cover general fund spending, and UAH 350.6 billion was raised from domestic government bond placements.

The largest spending categories since the beginning of 2026 were defense, debt repayment, social protection and veteran support, debt servicing, the medical guarantees program and health screening, school teacher pay, and basic and additional grants. The Ukrainian state budget for 2026 was initially adopted with revenue of UAH 2.90 trillion and expenditure of UAH 4.77 trillion, but parliament later increased both revenue and expenditure, mainly due to a EUR 45 billion EU loan.

The IMF's latest forecast for this year projects general government revenue at UAH 6.78 trillion and expenditure at UAH 7.94 trillion.