U.S. Exit Leaves Iraq With a Militia Problem

The United States' military withdrawal from Iraq has left the country grappling with a growing issue of militia control. The decision to withdraw was made in 2024, with the expectation that Iraqi forces would manage the remaining ISIS threat and that the U.S. would step in for bilateral training, intelligence sharing, and military assistance.

However, the U.S. is now leaving behind important capabilities, including intelligence on militant movements, aerial surveillance, and drones. The Kurdish region, in particular, is feeling the impact of Iranian missile and drone attacks, as well as the withdrawal of U.S. air defenses protecting Erbil. Baghdad had previously tied the U.S. withdrawal to a deadline for demobilizing Iranian-aligned militias, but this deadline has been pushed back to June 30, 2027.

Some factions within Iraq are seeking even longer delays, while negotiations are being held to incorporate militia members into state security institutions. Despite the withdrawal, the U.S. will continue to provide training, intelligence cooperation, and other support outside the coalition framework. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has reported a drone strike on Saudi infrastructure, and Iran's war in the region is causing further challenges for oil and gas production in Syria.

The Al-Jabsah gas pipeline explosion has cut supplies from the Al-Jabsah processing plant, leaving Syria with barely a third of the gas it needs. This development coincides with the IEA's call for Europe to release more of its emergency stock draw, as much of it remains in storage. Germany has released only 23% of its 15 million barrel commitment, while Spain has released about a third of its 11.6 million barrels.