Three reasons Middle East oil supply is nearly back to pre-Iran war levels
Experts say US military assistance, using shuttle tankers and pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz mean exports have rebounded.
Middle East oil supplies are nearing pre-Iranian war levels, according to recent data. Despite Iran's restrictions on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime intelligence firm Kpler reports that in the last week of September, oil flow from the region reached 92% of its pre-war baseline. Three key factors are contributing to this rebound in oil flow: US military escorting ships, shuttle tankers transferring oil through the strait, and overland pipeline exports.
About 40% of total oil exports from the region in September avoided the strait by traveling via pipelines to Red Sea or Gulf of Oman ports. Iran's oil exports have ceased following a US naval blockade imposed in July. US support for ships passing through the Hormuz strait has increased by a third in September compared to August, primarily through air support to intercept threats.
However, some experts question the sustainability of these measures due to potential Iranian escalations and the upcoming US midterm elections. Most oil now moves through a shuttle system of over 60 large tankers, with about 70% of crude oil passing through these tankers onto other vessels in the Gulf of Oman. The pipeline route has also seen increased usage, with almost a quarter of all crude oil flowing from the region now shipped via pipelines to Gulf of Oman terminals.
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