The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
Employment downside surprise, +29K vs +89, with cumulative 81K downward revisions to previous two months. Taking into account early benchmark, it’s not changing the picture too much. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green),…
The latest employment release and business cycle indicators paint a mixed picture of the US economy. Employment numbers surprised on the upside, with 29,000 additional jobs added in the latest month, though the cumulative revisions show a downward trend of 81,000 jobs over the past two months. Despite this, the employment picture from the household survey remains below January 2025 levels, indicating a lag in recovery.
The civilian employment adjusted to the NFP concept, using smoothed population controls, also shows this downward trend. Meanwhile, industrial production, personal income excluding current transfers, manufacturing and trade sales, and monthly GDP have all experienced revisions, with some showing growth while others have declined.
The freight services index has recently dropped, suggesting potential challenges in the logistics and transportation sectors. The early benchmark, which incorporates QCEW data, has been growing more slowly than the reported NFP, indicating potential discrepancies in the data. The private NFP from August and September releases, along with the Bloomberg consensus, all show a downward trend, reflecting a cautious view of the economy's growth prospects.
Written by urgent.news from Econbrowser's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
