Russia paid with more than 46,000 casualties, and the front moved the other way, ISW finds
September ended with a net Russian territorial loss, the think tank says.
Russia suffered nearly 46,000 casualties in 2026, with the front line shifting unfavorably, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi was a major factor in this trend. ISW notes that Ukraine's secrecy around counterattacks makes monthly tallies challenging. Russia persisted with attacks across the entire front, accepting heavy casualties for minimal territorial gains.
This year marked Russia's worst battlefield year since 2023. Despite these losses, Russia's recruitment rates have not kept pace with its casualties.
In September, Russia seized 175.54 km² but lost 256.35 km², resulting in a net loss of 80.81 km² or an average of 2.69 km² daily. When including makeshift gains in uncontrolled areas, Russia's net loss widened to 175.18 km². The month's figures include at least 147 km² near Lyman that Ukraine recaptured earlier, but ISW only recorded this once the details of Operation Vivaldi emerged in September. Operation Vivaldi disrupted Russia's plan to encircle Donetsk Fortress Belt cities from Lyman and Dobropillia.
Since March 2026, Russia's territorial gains have been minimal, dropping sharply and even becoming negative. After Ukraine's counteroffensive, Russia lost control of 293.59 km² of territory. Excluding infiltrations, Russia only gained control over 174.44 km². ISW's monthly chart reveals a pattern of net losses for Russia: 116.01 km² in April, 281.1 km² in May, modest gains in June, July, and August, and another net loss in September.
In June, Ukraine's then-commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces had reclaimed 100 km². Russian casualties have climbed steadily, from 32,980 in April to 42,860 in July and 42,020 in August. ISW highlights that Russia continues to suffer heavy personnel losses while making negligible or even net-negative territorial gains.
Written by urgent.news from Euromaidan Press's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
