Putin’s hopes for ‘productive’ Apec fuel talk of summit with Xi and Trump

Analysts suggest that a potential meeting between the leaders of Russia, China, and the United States at the Apec summit in Shenzhen next month is possible, contingent upon finding common ground and setting realistic expectations for the outcomes. The idea was initially raised publicly by Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov during a summit in Bishkek on September 1.

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed optimism about the meeting, stating that it would be "productive" and strengthen the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between the two countries. US President Donald Trump, who is also expected to attend the forum, will be meeting Putin for the first time since 2017.

Research indicates that the possibility of a trilateral meeting remains high, citing China and the US's expectation of four meetings this year, which would create different expectations for the outcomes. A meeting between the three leaders could symbolize Russia's continued role as a major player in international affairs despite ongoing confrontation with the West over the Ukraine war.

However, Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University's Centre for International Security and Strategy, noted that while the three leaders may attend the same summit, it does not guarantee a formal trilateral meeting. He added that informal talks could also take place.

China, as the host, could facilitate communication among the three leaders, but the critical question would be whether they could find a common agenda and develop reasonable expectations about the outcome. A brief exchange or informal meeting would have a relatively lower threshold compared to a trilateral summit with a clearly defined agenda, which would require more preparation.

For Beijing, a trilateral meeting could serve as another channel for managing relations with both Washington and Moscow, reflecting China's willingness to play a greater role in maintaining stability while balancing its relationships with Russia and the West.