OPEC+ delays production capacity review amid Middle East conflict

OPEC+ has delayed its planned review of 2027 oil production capacities due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to sources speaking to Reuters. The review, originally set to conclude by the end of September 2026, was intended to determine oil production quotas for member states in 2027. However, the US-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted capacity expansion projects across the region, complicating assessments of future production capabilities.

OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners like Russia, had previously ordered the review in late 2025. Despite the deadline having passed, the review is now expected to be completed by mid-November 2026. OPEC+ had previously stressed the importance of completing the assessment to establish a reference for the 2027 baseline output levels.

The crisis has further complicated the process, as some countries have not submitted the necessary data for the review. This uncertainty adds to the political sensitivity of the process, as production capacity estimates will influence the amount each member is allowed to pump. The review aims to provide an independent assessment of the volumes each member can sustainably produce, a crucial metric in negotiations over production targets.

Delays in capacity expansion plans could impact the assumptions behind these assessments and potentially affect future quotas for member states.