Oil falls about 3% on talks over diesel, crude stock releases

Oil prices declined approximately 3% on Friday as global energy markets reacted to discussions of releasing diesel and crude stockpiles, alleviating worries over scarce supplies. Brent crude futures dropped $2.83, or 2.77%, to $99.48 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell $3.35, or 3.61%, to $89.52 per barrel. Both major benchmarks were on track for a weekly loss, with Brent down about 4.7% for the week and WTI declining around 3.1%. European gasoil futures, which set the price for diesel, slipped over 5% to $1,377 per metric ton.

The drop in oil prices was driven by concerns that additional fuel and crude stock releases could help ease tightness in the market and avert a potential US diesel export ban. EU nations were considering releasing 50 million barrels of diesel and 50 million barrels of crude oil, as reported by a source familiar with the discussions.

The main driver of the current energy market stress is not crude availability, as Middle East flows have been recovering, but rather the supply of refined products, which have been constrained by reduced refinery capacity and output in the Middle East and Russia.

Meanwhile, the US was reported to be sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East in preparation for the possibility of re-engaging in strikes on Iran following the US midterm elections. Despite these developments, physical market fundamentals remained robust, with inventories continuing to decline and cargoes commanding steep premiums over forward prices. Barclays raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $20 to $115 and extended its 2026 forecast to $100 per barrel.