Latvia votes with Russia threat looming large

In a closely watched election this weekend, Latvia will pick a new parliament with security concerns over Russia and a cost-of-living crisis dominating the domestic agenda. The Oct. 3 vote for the 100-member Saeima, the country's unicameral parliament, marks the second since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in which Latvia wholeheartedly supported Kyiv.

The geopolitical tensions are particularly pressing for Latvia, which shares borders with both Russia and Belarus, and where about a third of the population speaks Russian as their mother tongue.

Out of the 14 parties running, seven are expected to secure a seat in the parliament. The United List (AS) alliance, an electoral alliance of pro-Ukraine parties, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, is favored to win. However, Kulbergs will still need to form a coalition to gain a majority. The prime minister has pledged unwavering support to Ukraine if re-elected, and Riga is expected to maintain a pro-Kyiv, pro-European stance after the elections.

The election field is crowded, with roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of the votes anticipated to go to parties targeting Russian-speaking voters. These include the Latvia First party, led by a Trumpian tycoon, and the Moscow-friendly Sovereign Power. The populist party Latvia First, polling third at 13.3%, is led by businessman Ainars Slesers, who has been accused of dabbles in disinformation.

His anti-establishment rhetoric and ties to Russian oligarchs make him a possible wild card if other parties fail to enter parliament.

Security concerns have been a focal point during the election campaign. Latvia's intelligence warned in June that Moscow may test Poland and the Baltic countries with hybrid attacks or missile incursions. Estonia recently accused Russia of orchestrating an arson attack against a defense company in Tallinn, while Germany claimed Moscow was behind an attempted drone attack.