La regulación resta atractivo a la compra para alquiler de vivienda

Regulation diminishing attractiveness of home purchase for rental investment. A freeze on rental prices coupled with increasing property costs and tightening financing conditions compel investors to be more cautious when investing. The government's urgent housing regulation following the Mari Carmen case will directly impact the vast universe of investors purchasing homes to rent.

According to Fotocasa data as of September, the average profitability of this method stands at 6.4%. However, seven provinces offer returns of at least 8%. This is nearly triple the return of a one-year Treasury bond and more than double what the best term deposits offer on the market. Most of the most profitable provinces are located inland.

Leading these locations are Toledo with a return of 9.2%, followed by Ciudad Real with 8.4%, Teruel with 8.1%, and Segovia and Zamora with 8%. Valencia, the most coastal city on the list, maintains an 8.1% return. Additionally, eight other Spanish provinces reach a minimum 7% return. Thus, in many Spanish provinces, buying for rental purposes remains attractive.

The appeal of this method depends on expected rental returns and property costs. In the former, the decrees will have decisive repercussions. Mandatory two-year leases for most contracts, with a total freeze for contracts above the Ministry's index (Servapi), may discourage home purchase for rental purposes. Studies show that 34% of homeowners with nearing expiration leases would abandon traditional residential rental, 24% contemplate selling the property, 8% relocate to room rental, and 2% to vacation rental, according to Fotocasa.

Laura Martínez, from mortgage broker iAhorro, states that buying a home for rental purposes is less appealing now. The gross return is around 6.5%, and in Madrid, it barely reaches 5%. After deducting expenses and taxes, financing a purchase at 3.2% Euribor leaves a marginal or negative margin. Laura Martínez concludes that buying for rental may be less attractive, especially for investors needing financing.

However, this may not be universally true. In locations with strong structural demand and scarce supply, housing remains an attractive asset for certain profiles. The key change is now needing better numbers: net return after financing, taxes, maintenance, periods without rent, and regulatory environment. This, combined with the continuous inflation surge, which according to iAhorro, could result in a 3-5 point real income loss each year due to regulation measures.

Alongside this, rising property prices also increase fixed costs for homeowners. The regulatory restrictions penalizing small property owners and private investors renting out their homes, coupled with the increasing financing costs, further reduce potential returns. The Euribor, which sets the price for new loans, closed at 3.24% in September and reopened at over 3.3% in October, the highest level in two years.

The latest official data from July shows that medium-term mortgage interest rates have risen above 3% for the first time in 18 months. This equation is further complicated by the ongoing rise in property prices. The Tinsa by Accumi real estate valuation firm reports that house prices increased by 14.7% in the third quarter of the year, reaching 2,129 euros per square meter.

Prices have risen in all provinces and capitals. For major listed real estate developers, the decree's impact is telling. Residential promotion giants Neinor and Metrovacesa have high levels of pre-sales, ensuring income in the coming quarters. In this scenario, analysts maintain their buy recommendations. Neinor, which has seen a strong 12.4% increase in shares last year, has seen a 4.74% drop this year and holds a 100% buy recommendation with a medium-term price target of 20.2 euros, representing a potential 24.8% revaluation.

In contrast, Metrovacesa is expected to gain 19.08% in 2026 and could see an additional 10.8% rise. However, in the stock market, real estate-related companies face a complex scenario with rising interest rates, which increase investor return demands. Without real estate in their portfolios, Colonial shares dropped 10.32% this year, and Merlin Properties fell 1.24%, far from their highs due to uncertainty caused by another government decree, the data on data centers the government plans to approve this month. Merlin is heavily investing in this segment.