Konjunktur: Italien hebt Wachstumsprognose an – Defizit 2027 aber Problem

Italy has raised its growth forecasts and aims to comply with the European Union's deficit limit for the first time since 2016 in 2026. However, the budget deficit is expected to exceed the EU's allowable three percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) starting in 2027. Prime Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti announced on Friday that the country's GDP will grow by 1.0 percent in 2026, up from the previous estimate of 0.6 percent.

The forecast for the following year has also been increased from 0.6 to 0.8 percent. The budget gap is projected to reach 3.4 percent of GDP in 2027, due to Italy's utilization of EU granted leeway for higher defense spending and to address the energy crisis. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is presenting her final budget ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election.

The economic landscape remains challenging, similar to many other countries, with rising energy prices driving inflation and increasing the government's borrowing costs. According to the plan, Italy's national debt will start to decline only in 2028, a year later than previously anticipated, reaching a peak of 138.5 percent of GDP in the coming year.

Giorgetti stated that the deficits for the next two years would still be above three percent of GDP, but they would be adjusted for the additional expenditures on defense and energy. Consequently, Italy would remain below the three percent threshold.