Konjunktur: Ifo: Geschäftsklima in Chemiebranche hellt sich deutlich auf

The business climate in Germany's chemical industry is improving rapidly, according to the latest Ifo survey. In September, the Ifo business climate for the sector rebounded for the second consecutive month, rising sharply to +5.5 points, up from -2.6 points in August. Companies in the country's third-largest industrial sector, after automotive and machinery, reported a further positive outlook on their business situation, with a gain of +8.8 points. Business expectations also improved significantly, moving from -15.0 to +2.3 points.

Ifo expert Anna Wolf explained that the recovery is being driven by increased stockpiles of customers both domestically and internationally, who are accepting higher prices as a result. The recovery is also supported by exports and orders from the manufacturing industry. Higher government spending on defense and infrastructure also bolsters the chemistry sector through upstream purchases.

However, the order backlog remains very low and the profit situation is still strained due to high costs. Wolf noted that the recovery is fragile as the improved price competitiveness is based on temporary factors such as production disruptions and supply chain issues in the Gulf region. The location disadvantages persist and job cuts continue.

The chemistry industry has benefited from the Iran war, as the conflict led to supply shortages from the Middle East and the particularly affected Asia. This shift in demand has resulted in higher prices for chemical products in Germany and Europe, enabling some companies like BASF and Evonik to raise their profit forecasts. However, the industry association VCI still does not see a sustained recovery.