Iran weighing options against US, Israel as nuclear talks stall, Israeli defense official says

A senior Israeli defense official has stated that Iran is currently weighing its options in response to mounting US pressure and stalled nuclear talks with Washington. The official believes Iran is exploring ways to extricate itself from the current situation and considering the possibility of influencing elections. Additionally, the official has noted a rise in unresolved incidents, some of which could potentially escalate into attacks on Israeli soil, not necessarily originating from Iran.

The official also mentioned that Iran is constantly assessing the situation in the US and Washington's readiness to confront them, which influences Tehran's own assessment.

The defense official highlighted the deteriorating conditions in Iran due to economic pressure from US sanctions. He pointed out that the number of tankers leaving the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz has increased to an average of 30 to 40 per day, indicating a decline in Iranian influence in the strait. The Iranian rial has also reached a new low against the US dollar, with nearly 2.5 million rials equaling one dollar.

According to the official, Iran has not yet reached hyperinflation, but the cost of living is now unbearable.

Moreover, a US naval blockade of Iran began this week, which, along with ongoing sanctions, carries humiliating elements for Tehran as it prevents family visits to neighboring countries. In response, the Iranians quickly approached neighboring countries to restore civilian flights, with Iraq being the only country to agree so far. The official noted that Israel is preparing for the risk of escalation, as Iran's range of options has significantly narrowed due to the naval blockade and unsuccessful attacks abroad.

Israeli defense officials assess that Iran is currently considering response options, such as targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which have failed so far. If Iran attempts to break the blockade through a military move or reaches understandings with the US, the IDF is preparing for the possibility of the situation spiraling out of control, such as a cruise missile strike on a US vessel resulting in fatalities.

The official stated that the Iranians are well aware of the consequences of such an action, which explains their cautious approach.