IG shares plunge as it slashes revenue forecast

On Friday morning, IG experienced a significant drop in its share price following the announcement of a revised annual revenue forecast. The spread betting company's shares plummeted by 26%, settling at 950p each, marking a 23.7% decline since January. The substantial decrease was triggered by a 14% year-on-year drop in revenue during the third quarter, primarily attributed to reduced revenue retention from over-the-counter (OTC) trading activities.

OTC revenue retention fell to 70% from the previous 80%, a rate that the FTSE 100 group had averaged since its inception in the second half of 2025. The online trading platform now anticipates a mid-single-digit percentage growth in revenue year on year, down from its earlier forecast of a 10-15% increase.

IG's revised forecast resulted in a lower expected earnings before tax range of the "low-40s per cent range" for the financial year, a drop from the previous 47%. Chief executive Breon Corcoran acknowledged the decline, attributing it to "less supportive market conditions." Despite the revenue drop, customer demand remained strong, with organic first trades increasing by more than 25%, and active customer numbers rising by 17%.

Revenue generated from OTC customers also grew by 8%. The investing platform's acquisition of Underdog, a sports prediction market, saw net revenue more than double to $105 million, ahead of its "seasonally important" fourth quarter. However, the Board expects to meet its medium-term guidance beyond 2026, anticipating continued customer growth fueled by ongoing product investments and higher OTC revenue retention.