El Ibex se juega los 19.000 puntos con el empleo de EEUU

The Ibex aims for the 19,000 point mark as U.S. employment figures loom. Market data and analysis are updated as of today. The macro agenda barely allows for a breather. The eurozone CPI precedes the official U.S. employment report, a key factor in this month's Fed meeting. A mini-truce in debt and oil eases downward pressure on the stock market, allowing the Ibex to attempt breaking the 19,000-point barrier.

The last quarter of the year started yesterday with a notable rebound in market tension. The wave of deleveraging in fixed income triggered a wave of highs in public debt interest rates, reaching unprecedented levels even prior to the global financial crisis. Turbulence in bonds spilled over to equities, particularly the variable European market, where the Ibex ended losing more than 2%.

For investor relief, public debt interest rates now sit below the highs reached yesterday. The ten-year U.S. debt yield falls to around 5.20%-5.25%, down from 5.34% in the first day of the quarter. In Europe, the German Bund interest rate drops to 3.50%, and the Spanish bond to 4.15%. The macro agenda for the day could trigger new waves of debt pressure, and by extension, across markets.

Two data points stand out for central bank relevance. At 11 AM, the eurozone CPI will be announced, potentially surging from 3.2% to 3.6%, putting pressure on the ECB. At 2:30 PM, the official U.S. employment report will be released, a closely watched reference for the Fed alongside inflation. Forecasts predict around 90,000 jobs created in September, and a constant unemployment rate, unchanged since 4.1% prior.

Monetary policy and debt are being conditioned in recent months by energy prices. A highlighted focus of pressure like oil sets the stage for potentially unsettling references. The Brent barrel hovers again above the 100-dollar barrier. Reports of thousands of U.S. troops deployment in the Middle East heighten concerns of a military escalation against Iran.

Oil sits at 102 dollars. After salvaging the day's session yesterday, Wall Street tries once more to avoid red numbers in futures, with investors attentive to the consequences the U.S. employment figures in debt, the Fed, and the dollar could have. The Spanish stock market manages to dissipate at least the downward wave that activated in yesterday's session.

The Ibex ended losing 2.17%, and held onto the 19,000-point barrier by a mere five-point margin. As we await the incoming data throughout the day, the Ibex must once again strive to surpass the 19,000-point level, falling short by just five points compared to the 19,700 reached at the end of the previous week.