East Africa drought-hit crops now face El Niño flood threat – report

East Africa transitions from drought to flood threat as El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole loom – report

Months of severe drought are giving way to a looming threat of heavy October-to-December rains across northern and western East Africa, according to the October 2026 Crop Monitor for Early Warning. Some areas experienced their driest season on record between June and September, with rainfall deficits reaching up to 300 millimeters in parts of Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan.

The shift to heavier rains could restore depleted water supplies, improve pasture and support stressed crops, but also pose risks of flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and transport disruptions. The combination of El Niño and a strengthening Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to bring above-normal rainfall across Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania during the October-to-December season.

While the rains could replenish water sources and improve pastures, they could also trigger flooding, particularly in southern Somalia, the Juba and Shabelle River areas, northeastern and southeastern Kenya, and the Tana River basin. Kenya faces a particularly significant impact, with maize yields potentially falling up to 36 percent below average in some producing regions.

The El Niño-driven dry conditions reduced pasture and surface water availability, increasing crop yield risks. Heavy rainfall could affect crops in critical growth stages, while excessive rain could create new problems. The climate outlook shows a very strong El Niño is expected to persist through January 2027, with a 70 to 90 percent chance of above-normal rainfall during the October-to-December season.

The greatest concerns are in flood-prone areas, and governments, humanitarian agencies and communities must prepare for a volatile transition between drought and flood conditions.