Do Norte ao Sul, um Brasil exausto vai às urnas

Do Norte to Sul, a exhausted Brazil heads to the polls. This was the sentiment Brazil Journal found in two diametrically opposite electoral strongholds: Crato in Ceará, a key Lula stronghold; and Brusque in Santa Catarina, a symbol of Bolsonaro's power in the South. To illustrate, 81% of Crato's voters backed Lula in the 2022 first round, while in Brusque, nearly 73% chose Jair Bolsonaro.

The two cities may appear similar in size, but their economic realities are far apart. Four years later, Cratense and Brusquense remain largely politically opposed. However, one thing binds them together: the feeling of exhaustion. A recent Real Time Big Data survey found that 55% of the electorate is disillusioned with the presidential election.

In Brusque, Thaise Martins, a right-wing voter and security specialist, said society is "saturated by the system" and hopes to vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, but admits she would like more options. "We end up having to vote for him." Meanwhile, in rural northeast Brazil, Luciana Freire Pinto Maia, a federal university employee and left-wing voter, noted that Crato remains majority Lula territory, but observes fewer campaign materials and people willing to openly support politicians.

"I believe people are a bit tired, but I still have hope for a better day," she said. Exhaustion hasn't broken down the polarization. The electoral map from four years ago remains the same: Lula retains his strongest base in the Northeast, while Flávio finds one of his main bastions in the South. Yet, the numbers suggest a contest with less robust bases than in 2022 – especially in their strongholds.

In the Northeast, Lula now has 55% of the vote intentions, compared to 25% for Flávio, according to Datafolha. In 2022, Lula had 63.8% of the votes in the region, while Bolsonaro had 25.8%. In the South, Flávio now has 47%, compared to 31% for Lula, also according to Datafolha. In 2022, Jair Bolsonaro received 53% of all votes in the region, while Lula received 35% in the first round.

The comparison requires careful consideration as research and voting are two very different entities, but the scenario helps demonstrate the difficulty of both candidates. While Lula tries to preserve the vote he received four years ago, especially in the Northeast, Flávio still aims to reach the level his father achieved in the last election.

In this politically battered Brazil – and seemingly less inclined to fight for its candidates – Brazil Journal heard the voices of the voters. In Brusque, we found a deeply right-wing city, but less mobilized than four years ago. In Crato, the memory of petista governments still supports Lula, but it coexists with greater criticism – especially among the younger generation.

These portrayals of the same country offer a glimpse into the people's decision on their future in just two days.