Brazil: President Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro 48%-45% in runoff poll

Brazil's presidential race nears conclusion on Thursday, with voters heading to the polls on Sunday. The incumbent leftist president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is predicted to narrowly win the first round, but polling suggests he will fall short of the votes needed to avoid a runoff. The second-round election, scheduled for October 25, will pit Lula against Flavio Bolsonaro, the senator son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula, a symbol of global leftism, aims to secure his fourth non-consecutive term but faces challenges such as rising costs of living, heavy household debts, and the influence of criminal gangs. In contrast, Flavio Bolsonaro, backed by his influential father, has sought to align himself with the US president through White House visits, viewing the Americans as a form of insurance policy.

Lula has warned of foreign interference, particularly in light of fresh tariffs from Washington. Despite Lula's early lead, recent polls indicate a tight race, with the candidates now tied at 47.6% and 47.7% respectively for the runoff. Flavio Bolsonaro has leveraged his father's popularity, even employing an AI-generated avatar for his campaign.

Lula, meanwhile, has grappled with legal troubles involving his son, a federal police investigation into influence peddling. As the race intensifies and voter concerns shift towards security measures, scandals involving the former Banco Master head, Daniel Vorcaro, and alleged corruption have further colored Brazil's political landscape.