Australia, New Zealand dollars at multi-month lows as yields buffers shrink
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were pinned around multi-month lows on Friday as the greenback extended its bull run through major chart levels, while bonds found some relief from a rare rally in Treasuries. The Aussie was heading for its fourth straight week of losses as US yields surged and shrank the premium offered by Australian debt to the smallest in a year. That left the…
The Australian and New Zealand dollars tumbled to multi-month lows on Friday as the US dollar continued its upward trend, reaching new milestones. The Australian dollar, in particular, faced its fourth consecutive week of decline, with US yields surging and diminishing the yield advantage of Australian debt. The Aussie was trading at $0.6920 on Friday, marking a 0.2% drop overnight and a three-month low of $0.6904.
It had fallen by 1.4% over the week and was edging closer to previous lows of $0.68665 and $0.6834. The New Zealand dollar also struggled, hovering at an 11-month low of $0.5592, after breaching the $0.5627 mark and prompting further selling. Major support for the Kiwi dollar stands at $0.5581, and a breach below this level could trigger a further slide to $0.5485.
While Australian bonds initially suffered, a slight retreat in expectations of an October rate hike helped yields dip by 11 basis points over the week, reaching 4.898% as of the latest data. The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise rates to a 15-year high of 4.6% on Tuesday raised questions about the policy intent to assess the effects before any further adjustments.
The probability of an October rate hike had slipped to 22%, with a December move considered to be only 38%. Adam Bowe, the head of Australia portfolio management at PIMCO, noted that while inflation remains the primary focus for now, the RBA Board must remain vigilant to emerging downside risks in the months ahead. The demand for Australian dollar-denominated bonds has provided a buffer against the negative impact on Treasuries, shrinking the 10-year yield premium to a one-year low of 11 basis points, which has further weakened the Aussie's interest rate advantage against the greenback.
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