US Dollar: Fed outlook supported by robust data – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir assess US PCE and GDP revisions as broadly supportive for a firm US macro backdrop and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve stance. They highlight robust US growth, sticky inflation and upgraded GDP forecasts, arguing that lower inflation revisions do not materially alter the narrative for the US Dollar or Fed policy expectations.
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir analyze recent US macroeconomic data and assess the outlook for the US Dollar and Federal Reserve policy. They highlight robust growth, sticky inflation, and upgraded GDP forecasts, maintaining a hawkish stance on the Fed. Despite a significant downward revision in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, the economists still expect the Fed to raise rates in October, but acknowledge the possibility of a more gradual approach.
Upcoming data and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support the safe-haven US Dollar, which could weigh on commodities like gold.
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