Ukraine business sentiment dips slightly in Sept – National Bank
The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly on a scale where readings from 0 to 50 are negative and those from 50 to 100 are positive, fell to 48.2 in September 2026 from 48.3 a month earlier and 50.4 a year earlier.
In September 2026, the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) calculated by Ukraine's National Bank fell slightly to 48.2, marking a marginal decline from 48.3 in August and 50.4 a year earlier. The decline was attributed to worsening security conditions, damaged logistics and production facilities, rising business costs from higher fuel prices, limited domestic supply and skilled labor shortages, and a slight deterioration in exchange rate expectations.
Positive factors included stable energy supply, a robust harvest, and the development of new logistics routes.
Industrial companies showed a resurgence in positive assessments, driven by improved manufacturing performance and stability in the energy sector. They anticipated an increase in product volumes and new orders, including exports. Industrial sectorial index improved to 51.0 in September 2026 from 47.3 in August and 49.1 in September 2025.
However, construction companies' sentiment remained subdued, mainly due to the suspension of state funding for road and infrastructure projects, construction's seasonal nature, and rising expenses. The sectoral index dropped to 48.8 in September from 50.7 in August and 50.0 in September 2025. Despite expectations of slower growth in construction volumes and new orders, builders anticipated an uptick in purchases of raw materials and services.
Retail and wholesale trade companies displayed the most cautious outlook, primarily due to damaged warehouse complexes and complicated logistics. The sectoral index decreased to 45.9 in September from 47.5 in August and 54.0 in September 2025. Retailers anticipated further drops in turnover, purchases, and inventory levels, signaling declining profit margins.
Service-sector companies also reported more muted expectations, considering ongoing logistics and warehouse destruction, higher fuel costs, and a skilled labor shortage. The sectoral index remained at 47.3 in September, down from 49.5 in August and 49.4 in September 2025. Service providers stated that their current service volume equaled the previous month, but they expected a decline in new orders and ongoing services.
The labor market remained mixed, with only construction firms expecting increased employment, while other sectors anticipated workforce reductions, particularly in the services industry. Conducting both export and import operations was reported by 34.5% of the surveyed companies, export activities alone by 8.2%, import activities alone by 18.5%, and no foreign economic operations by 38.8%.
Written by urgent.news from Interfax-Ukraine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
