U.S. officials see Chinese attack before 2028 as increasingly unlikely

U.S. intelligence officials now estimate it is highly unlikely China will invade Taiwan before 2028, according to multiple sources cited by Reuters. The assessment contrasts with previous expectations that China would aim to seize control of the self-governing island by 2027 if leader Xi Jinping's directive was to be followed. U.S. officials attribute the shift to several factors, including China's ongoing anti-corruption campaign which has hampered military readiness, and the country's interest in the outcome of Taiwan's 2028 presidential election.

Some Chinese officials believe Beijing could potentially gain control of Taiwan if the current Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth consecutive presidential term, particularly if incumbent President Lai Ching-te is re-elected. Lai and his ruling party advocate for Taiwan's separate identity from China. However, U.S. officials still view the 2027 deadline as more of a target for military preparedness rather than a set date for an invasion.

Beijing has never officially confirmed Xi's order for Taiwan to be taken by force by 2027. China has not publicly confirmed the existence of such an order. U.S. intelligence previously stated in its 2023 threat assessment that China had no plan to invade Taiwan in 2027, preferring to take control without force if possible. The upcoming U.S. presidential election in 2028 could also play a role in Beijing's calculations, although the potential impact is seen as less significant compared to past elections.

Chinese military exercises have become less threatening than in recent years, with activity decreasing slightly in 2023 but slightly increasing in 2024. However, Chinese military leaders remain dissatisfied with the People's Liberation Army's readiness. China's anti-corruption campaign has significantly reduced the membership of its Central Military Commission, contributing to these readiness issues.

U.S. officials also believe China has learned from recent conflicts in Ukraine and Iran and believes any potential attack on Taiwan must be swift to achieve its objectives, rather than becoming a prolonged conflict. The U.S. and China continue to have tense relations over Taiwan, with Beijing demanding Washington stop selling weapons to Taipei and calling the island a central question of Chinese sovereignty.

Despite this, Taiwan has continued to prepare for a potential Chinese invasion, including large-scale military exercises testing the island's ability to defend critical infrastructure. China has maintained significant military pressure around Taiwan through aircraft and warship exercises and combat-readiness patrols.