Russia’s Putin rules out ceasefire with Ukraine during speech in Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared on Thursday that Russia would employ every weapon at its disposal to defend its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad if it were to be directly attacked. This warning came in the wake of accusations from Moscow that NATO was planning to blockade the territory, a claim NATO has sought to dispel as defensive in nature.

The Russian leader insisted that Moscow was not threatening anyone and only responding to statements by Western leaders suggesting Russia was preparing for war in 2029 or 2030.

Throughout the week, Russia has repeatedly accused NATO of preparing a blockade of its territory, which borders Lithuania and Poland. Putin warned that Russia would even consider using nuclear weapons if the West attempted to cut off Kaliningrad from the rest of Russia. NATO has attempted to calm the situation, stressing that it is a defensive alliance and urging Moscow to cease its "nuclear threats." Western allies have faced a surge in hybrid warfare incidents, particularly in Poland and the Baltics in recent months.

Poland reported a Russian helicopter straying into its territory adjacent to Kaliningrad last week, while Lithuania expressed feeling "constantly threatened" by Russia, partly due to drones entering its airspace. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday that his country was preparing for further hybrid attacks, including serious ones, following a drone armed with explosives found at Leipzig airport in August.

In his speech at the Valdai foreign policy forum, Putin stated that he believed international conflicts would likely continue but improve as "Western hegemony" weakened. Though Putin initiated the full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022, he blamed the West for provoking it, arguing that Moscow had merely defended itself. He also insisted that Russia's attacks on Ukrainian economic targets were a direct response to Ukraine's strikes on Russia's oil refineries and ships in the Black Sea.

Putin admitted that Ukraine had achieved results from its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, causing a loss of about 1% of its GDP. Ukraine maintains that it began attacking Russian oil infrastructure to help finance the war. Russia has also targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, ramping up attacks every winter since the war began in 2022. Other civilian infrastructure, such as a key bridge in Kyiv, has also been hit by drones.

Putin accused NATO of conducting naval maneuvers in the Baltic Sea that he argued posed serious threats to Kaliningrad. If the territory were placed under a Western blockade, he said Russia would be prepared to use all means and forces, including nuclear weapons. He emphasized that Russia's capabilities were unparalleled, drawing an analogy between a gun on a theater stage and the potential for catastrophic consequences if used.

Putin called for the rewriting of the rules of warfare and warned of the increasing risk of AI in warfare, stating that automation and digitalization could lead to "gamification" and a degradation of humanity.