Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and hourly earnings due Friday

As financial markets prepare for another significant day, key economic data releases scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026, will likely influence market trends. The focus will be on several crucial indicators of the U.S. labor market: the nonfarm payrolls report, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.

At 7:30 AM ET, traders will be awaiting the nonfarm payrolls data, with analysts projecting a gain of 89,000 jobs, following a previous increase of 162,000. This report serves as a primary gauge of consumer spending strength. Concurrently, the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%, mirroring the previous month's figure. Average hourly earnings are also forecast to rise by 0.3%, unchanged from the prior quarter.

Further data points set to be released include private nonfarm payrolls, anticipated to increase by 82,000 jobs, down from the previous 127,000. The participation rate, reflecting the share of the working-age population either employed or actively seeking work, is projected to be 61.6%.

At 9:00 AM ET, traders will examine factory orders, with expectations of a 0.1% growth from the prior 0.9%. Additionally, the Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count, a leading indicator for oil demand, and the U.S. Total Rig Count will be reported.

Later in the day, at 2:30 PM ET, speculative positions for various commodities in the CFTC futures markets will be disclosed, providing insights into market sentiment. These include crude oil, gold, natural gas, copper, silver, wheat, corn, and aluminum. Finally, at 7:30 AM ET, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie K. Logan will deliver remarks on monetary policy.