Nigeria at 66: From resilience to enduring capability

Nigeria, on the cusp of its 66th birthday, presents a compelling paradox: it has demonstrated resilience and achieved remarkable capabilities, yet many citizens still depend on private innovation to compensate for public weaknesses. As Nigeria commemorates this milestone, it is crucial to consider the factors that have contributed to its success and the challenges that lie ahead.

Throughout its history, Nigeria has endured numerous trials, including civil war, military rule, and economic disruptions. Despite these adversities, the nation has produced globally competitive professionals, entrepreneurs, artists, and institutions. However, there remains a significant contradiction: while Nigeria boasts a pool of talented individuals, many fail to translate this talent into capable institutions.

The central challenge for Nigeria is not a lack of talent, but the inability to convert this talent into institutional capability. Much of Nigeria's strength lies in the resilience and adaptability of its people, who often outperform their systems. To address this imbalance, Nigeria must focus on strengthening its national institutions to command the same level of confidence as those found in hometown associations, traditional institutions, and religious communities.

Over the past two decades, Nigeria has made significant strides in civilian governance. Since 1999, the country has maintained its longest period of civilian rule, with the peaceful transition of power in 2015 marking a significant achievement. However, the transition from democracy to effective governance remains a work in progress. Democracy must extend beyond polling stations and impact various aspects of daily life, such as education, healthcare, public safety, and economic opportunities.

Nigeria's telecommunications revolution is a prime example of how the nation can rapidly respond to new opportunities when constraints are removed. The widespread adoption of mobile technology has transformed Nigerians into consumers of banking, marketplaces, media, and business tools. This success can be replicated in other sectors such as electricity, broadband, transport, credit, and education, which currently lack enabling systems.

Nigeria has also made a significant impact on the global stage through its cultural exports. Nollywood, Afrobeats, literature, fashion, comedy, and digital culture have shaped how Africa is perceived worldwide. The nation's cultural influence should be leveraged to promote tourism, intellectual property, technology, education, and investment.

The Nigerian diaspora plays a crucial role in contributing to the nation's capabilities. Many Nigerians occupy key positions in various fields across the globe, highlighting the potential of Nigerian talent in well-functioning systems. This raises the question of why Nigerian talent often thrives in better-functioning environments. Instead of merely viewing the diaspora as a source of remittances, Nigeria should recognize its global network of capability and explore ways to transfer this knowledge back to the home country.

However, several challenges persist in Nigeria's journey towards enduring capability. One key issue is the lack of institutional memory, as governments, organizations, and agencies often perform well under specific individuals but struggle to maintain momentum upon their departure. Implementing clear performance commitments, with owners, deadlines, and consequences, can help preserve institutional knowledge across administrations.

Another challenge lies in Nigeria's decentralization approach. While federalism has been a topic of debate, less emphasis has been placed on empowering states to specialize in various productive sectors. Indonesia's experience demonstrates that simply transferring resources does not guarantee development; local incentives and measurable outcomes are crucial.

Nigeria should transition towards productive federalism, allowing states to compete and excel in areas such as agriculture, exports, infrastructure, and service delivery.

Trust is a significant asset for Nigerians, as they often rely on trust within family networks, religious communities, and hometown associations. However, this trust tends to be limited to close-knit groups. India's digital public infrastructure illustrates the potential of creating reliable national platforms for identity, payments, qualifications, land, and public services. By building supply chains and leadership teams across regions, Nigeria can strengthen the connections between its diverse local identities.

Informality has been a defining characteristic of Nigeria's economy, and while it has contributed to the nation's resilience, it also poses challenges. Informal sectors often lack proper regulation, leading to issues such as tax evasion, lack of fair competition, and limited access to public services. To move towards a more capable system, Nigeria must strike a balance between informality and regulation, ensuring that informal sectors are integrated into the formal economy in a sustainable manner.