Look past AI’s hype cycle to understand what sticks

The artificial intelligence education market has been growing steadily, expanding from $150 million in 2021 to an estimated $730 million in 2026 and $18.5 billion by 2036. However, hype cycles often lead to a rapid decline in excitement, known as the "trough of disillusionment." In education, the stakes are particularly high, making it difficult to navigate the hype cycle. Schools must balance spending responsibly with seizing opportunities to support students' academic goals.

Currently, the decision-making process around AI in schools is fraught with uncertainty. Policy debates oscillate between promises to address equity issues and concerns about banning AI entirely. While other countries have made strides in integrating AI as an infrastructure project, the United States still lacks a clear definition of "good AI" for teaching and learning. Infrastructure, curricular, and learning science play crucial roles in guiding district leaders, school leaders, and teachers in making informed choices.

To avoid the pitfalls of edtech, such as mismatched instructional needs, excessive screen time, lack of teacher training, and automation complacency, it is essential to establish a shared infrastructure that enables AI developers to provide educators with meaningful insights into learning. A nuanced understanding of how to gauge instructional impact is crucial.

For instance, companies like Brisk Teaching are working on developing measurement frameworks that connect AI use to evidence-based categories of instructional practice. By ranking the impact of AI-enabled interactions on student learning, they aim to build a clearinghouse of best practices to guide district and school leaders in selecting the most suitable AI tools for their unique needs.

The effective use of AI in classrooms should foster agency, purpose, curiosity, and connection among students while helping them develop the conceptual proficiency and durable skills needed for lasting understanding. However, the potential of AI in education is not automatic; it requires careful consideration and a clear understanding of how to harness its power responsibly.

With 85% of teachers already using AI, but fewer than half having received any training, it is imperative to set a higher bar for measuring AI's impact on student learning. Efficiency gains are important, but the most critical measures of a tool's usefulness and impact lie in its ability to create meaningful learning moments and help districts determine which tools align with their priorities.

AI providers must demonstrate how their tools create these moments and support districts in measuring them against their specific goals.